During a news conference just days before Thanksgiving, then-president-elect Barak Obama announced his economic plan and conceded that the economy is in bad shape: "The economy is likely to get worse before it gets better…. Most experts now believe that we could lose millions of jobs next year."
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development came out with an equally grim assessment of the economy around the same time: "The U.S. economy has probably slipped into a recession that will last through the middle of 2009, and recovery will be slow as consumers cut spending to rebuild lost wealth. As financial conditions normalize and the housing downturn bottoms out, the economy is projected to grow again in the third quarter of 2009."
And for any lingering optimists, the National Bureau of Economic Research announced Dec. 1 that the U.S. has officially been in a recession since December 2007.
Meetings Industry Impact
Of course, the gloomy economic situation will reverberate through the meetings and conventions world, as corporations in particular feel the pressure to cut back on expenses they may not deem mission-critical.
Deborah Sexton, president and CEO of PCMA, crystallized the impact the turbulent economy is having on the meetings industry.
"A shaky economy will affect attendance and budget," Sexton says. "Typically, the corporate market—planned shorter-term and with more flexibility—is affected earlier and will respond more quickly to changes in the economy. Annual and regular meetings of associations, as they are planned many years in advance and occur regularly, are often less affected by the economy in the short term. Association meetings will occur. The question is how attendance will ultimately be impacted."
Cisco Systems, for example, plans to reduce its fiscal year 2009 expenses by more than $1 billion. To accomplish this, the company will target reductions in travel and discretionary-related expenses such as off-sites, events, trade shows and marketing.
In a poll about job trends for 2009 Meetings Media sent out at the beginning of November 2008, respondents echoed these changes. Of the 398 people who responded, approximately 41 percent were corporate planners, 39 percent association planners, almost 14 percent were independent planners and about 6 percent worked as government planners.
When asked, What changes do you anticipate seeing in your area of the meetings industry in the next three to six months?, 41 percent overall responded that they anticipate reducing the number of meetings and events their department will manage in 2009. Taking a closer look at the four planner groups polled, the responses seem to mirror Sexton’s comment. Between 52 percent to 54 percent of the government and corporate planners anticipate reducing their number of meeting and events, whereas only 26 percent of the association planners anticipate this type of change.
Jill Conrad, CMP, senior manager, corporate communications at Pleasanton, Calif.-based Front Range Solutions, is already experiencing changes in her department.
"We’re anticipating that some programs will get deferred while others will get cut," Conrad says. "We’re looking at a 10 percent reduction in our trade shows and other lead-generating events."
Although these changes will not mean any immediate reduction of planners in Conrad’s department, Front Range Solutions will not be outsourcing any work to independent planners as they have in the past.
Independent planners anticipate seeing changes on both fronts when it comes to their clients’ programs. Forty-four percent anticipate reductions in the number of meetings and events and 54 percent believe their clients will maintain the same number of meetings but reduce the budgets per program.
Shari Westmoreland, CMP, president of Atlanta-based The Eventors, has already been experiencing these changes. Two of her corporate clients put freezes on all internal meetings, but not trade shows. For a January 2009 program, attendance is lower then usual with less pick-up in the hotel room block, along with a dramatic drop in sponsorships. Westmoreland plans to shift her focus away from the automotive and financial service companies that are her typical clientele and more toward more-viable industries such as healthcare and technology. She did the same thing when her technology clients scaled back after 9/11.
In speaking with her customers, Judi McLaughlin, CMP, managing director of third-party planning giant Helms Briscoe, has found that leaders in a range of business sectors anticipate cutting meetings and jobs.
"Leaders in the automotive, financial and pharmaceutical sectors anticipate cutting back on meetings, with less spend as well as reductions in head count," McLaughlin says.
When clients eliminate meeting planning positions, it affects the third-party meeting management and destination management companies who frequently handle the ancillary aspects of meetings and conferences. McLaughlin, who previously worked at Maritz McGettigan for 18 years, has seen the impact cutbacks in programs have on third-party meeting management companies.
"It’s a trickle-down effect," McLaughlin says.
In the short-term, Conrad is not concerned that her department will eliminate any positions because of the volume of meetings and events Front Range Solutions’ marketing communications department manages.
The responses from Meetings Media’s poll seem to echo Conrad’s viewpoint. Almost 71 percent responded "no" when asked if they were concerned that their position may be eliminated if the economy does not show signs of improvement in the next three to six months.
While we may not see a significant number of layoffs in the first two quarters of 2009, it’s uncertain what will happen if the economy does not improve by the third quarter of the year. If the recession continues into the first three to six months of 2009, Westmoreland sees a freezing of programs extending into the third and fourth quarter of the year.
Be Prepared
Just like an earthquake preparedness kit, it’s a good idea to begin gathering your resources in advance if you have concerns about losing your job. Here are some things to do to create your job preparedness kit:
- Update your resume: Make certain your resume includes your most recent work experience and highlights accomplishments and achievements for each position you’ve held. Maintain your resume on your personal computer and not on your computer at work. It’s likely that your employer won’t allow you to access any files on your work computer if they lay you off.
- Revisit your references: Verify that you have current contact information for your references. In these uncertain times, some of your references could be in the same boat as you, so make sure you have an updated phone number and e-mail address. It’s also a good time to check in with your references to let them know about what’s happening with your job and your career goals.
- Protect your professional network: Store contact information about your professional network on a flash drive or make photocopies of their business cards. Don’t assume that your employer will allow you to remove the Rolodex from your desk.
- Evaluate your job search criteria: Are you flexible or rigid about your job search? Would you consider a longer commute, working for a different-size company or organization, or a position that demanded more travel? Relocation may be another option to consider. This is not always an easy decision to make, as evidenced by the fact that 70 percent of the respondents to the poll said they would not consider relocating to another part of the country. Their top three concerns were moving away from family and friends (58 percent), difficulty selling a home (46 percent) and uncertainty if a spouse or partner could find work in a new location (39 percent).
- Stay current with job trends: Keep abreast of what’s happening with new and expanding industries. Economists anticipate job growth in the following areas: construction (roads and highways); healthcare, medical and biotechnology; and renewable energy (wind, geothermal, solar and hydropower).
