To make better decisions, the following “WRAP” process is a simple four-step approach to expanding your options, being objective and readying for the outcome when your choices are off the mark.
Widen Your Options
Narrow framing leads us to overlook options. (Teenagers and executives often make “whether or not” decisions.) We need to uncover new options and, when possible, consider them simultaneously through multi-tracking. (Think AND not OR.) Where can you find new options? Find someone who has solved your problem. Try laddering: First look for current bright spots (local), then best practices (regional) and then analogies from related domains (distant).
Reality-Test Your Assumptions
In assessing our options, a confirmation bias leads us to collect skewed, self-serving information. To combat that bias, we can ask disconfirming questions. (What problems does my proposal have?) We can also zoom out and zoom in. And whenever possible we should “ooch,” conducting small experiments to teach us more. Why predict when you can know?
Attain Distance Before Deciding
Short-term emotion tempts us to make choices that are bad in the long term. To avoid that, we need to attain distance by shifting perspective: What would I tell my best friend to do? Or, what would my successor do? When decisions are agonizing, we need to clarify our core priorities.
Prepare to be Wrong
We are overconfident, thinking we know how the future will unfold when we really don’t. We should prepare for bad outcomes as well as good ones. And what would make us reconsider our decisions?
We can set tripwires that snap us to attention at the right moments. For example, a company instituting a new “work from home” policy might set a review date in the near future to ensure that production and profit do not drop off.
Dan Heath is the co-author, along with his brother Chip, of three New York Times bestsellers: Made to Stick, Switch, and their latest book, Decisive.